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European Journal of Public Health

◐ Oxford University Press (OUP)

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match European Journal of Public Health's content profile, based on 21 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Population-Based Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity in German Youth: Findings from MoMo 2.0 and Comparison with KiGGS

Lazarides, C.; Kuhnert, R.; Schienkiewitz, A.; Tschuschke, L.; Klos, L.; Fiedler, J.; Wolbring, L.; Hanssen-Doose, A.; Volk, C.; Niessner, C.; Loss, J.; Voelkle, M. C.; Woll, A.

2026-10-02 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.10.01.26364513 medRxiv
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Objective: Overweight and obesity in childhood and adolescence are major risk factors for health problems across the lifespan. This manuscript reports the current prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents aged 4-17years living in Germany and compares them with previous population-based results. Methods: A representative, cross-sectional sample of 4-17-year-olds was drawn following a multistage sampling process. Analyses are based on weight and height of 3,978 individuals measured in the field by trained test instructors between 2023-2025. Overweight and obesity classification was defined using age- and sex-specific body-mass-index percentiles. To allow for comparability of prevalence estimates derived from previous assessment waves and other panel studies dating back to 2005, an alignment factor was derived using an inverse probability of participation weighting approach. Together with sampling weights, the alignment factor was applied to obtain current, representative prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity. Results: The aligned, weighted prevalence of overweight and obesity was 16.1% (95%CI[14.5-17.9%]), whereas prevalence of obesity was 6.7% (95%CI [5.5-8.1%]). Age- and sex-specific prevalence rates are reported and compared to previous waves. Conclusions: The current prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents aged 4-17 years living in Germany remains stable over the past two decades.

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Proof-of-implementation of the SMART2D intervention: findings from a cluster randomised feasibility trial for prevention and control of type 2 diabetes in socio-economically disadvantaged neighbourhoods in Stockholm, Sweden

Daivadanam, M.; Sidney Annerstedt, K.; Alveson, H.; Timm, L.; Johan Sundberg, C.; Delobelle, P.; Olmen, J. V.; Absetz, P.; Guwatudde, D.

2026-10-02 public and global health 10.64898/2026.09.30.26364359 medRxiv
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Background Type 2 diabetes (T2D) disproportionately affects socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Evidence on the feasibility and effectiveness of prevention and self-management strategies in complex contexts remains limited. Objective To report effectiveness outcomes from a feasibility trial comparing the SMART2D intervention with routine primary care for T2D prevention and control in two neighbourhoods in Stockholm. Methods A cluster-randomized feasibility trial with hybrid type 1 design was conducted in two neighbourhoods among individuals at high risk of T2D (n=84) or with diagnosed T2D (n=58), allocated to an integrated care arm (n=70; personal coaching and community outreach) or facility-only arm (n=72; routine care). Primary outcomes were glycaemic control (participants with T2D) and HbA1c reduction (participants at high risk of T2D); secondary outcomes were retention to care and diabetes incidence (participants at high risk of T2D). Analysis used intention-to-treat principles: difference-in-differences with mixed-effects models for HbA1c reduction, and modified Poisson regression (IRR, 95% CI) for other outcomes. Results Among participants with T2D, glycaemic control (adjusted IRR=0.92, 95% CI=0.89-0.95) and retention to care (adjusted IRR=0.91, 95% CI=0.91-0.92) were significantly lower in the integrated care arm. Among participants at high risk of T2D, integrated care showed a marginally significant, greater HbA1c reduction (adjusted 2.02, 0.20-3.84) and significantly higher retention to care (adjusted IRR=1.22, 1.15-1.29), plus fewer incident diabetes cases (0 vs. 2 in facility-only). Conclusions Integrated care (personal coaching, community outreach) benefited HbA1c reduction and retention among participants at high risk of T2D, whereas facility-only care improved glycaemic control and retention among participants with T2D.

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Climate factors and child health in Sweden: a nationwide whole-population study of 4.6 million school-aged children

Pandey, S.; Olivetti, L.; Walter, I. J.; Brizzi, L. F.; Ramusino, F. C.; Hardelid, P.; Döring, S.; Carlo, T.; Mazzoleni, M.; Magnusson, C.; Messori, G.; Raffetti, E.

2026-10-07 public and global health 10.64898/2026.10.05.26364616 medRxiv
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Background Short-term weather conditions can trigger paediatric hospital admissions, but evidence remains limited on the health relevance of intraday temperature variability, humidity, and precipitation, and generally on which subgroups are most susceptible. Methods We conducted a nationwide case time-series study of Swedish children and adolescents aged 6-18 years using linked register data. Associations between daily mean temperature, intraday temperature variability, relative humidity, and precipitation and inpatient hospitalisations were estimated with Poisson regression (individual fixed effects) combined with distributed lag non-linear models over lags 0-21 days. Outcomes included all-cause hospitalisation and cause-specific admissions. Effect modification was examined by sex, age group, socioeconomic indicators, region, and calendar periods. Findings Among 4,638,247 children and adolescents in the cohort, 1,070,702 (23.1%) experienced at least one inpatient hospitalisation, contributing 1,736,169 hospitalisation events. All-cause hospitalisation increased with higher mean temperature, with risk highest at hot extremes. Intraday temperature variability showed a U-shaped association, with higher rates at both lowest and highest exposure levels. Relative humidity showed no association with hospitalisation risk. Higher precipitation was associated with increased hospitalisation risk, but estimates at high rainfall levels were imprecise. Stratified analyses indicated modest differences by sex and socioeconomic indicators, but clearer heterogeneity by age and region, with the highest risks among younger children and in East Sweden; associations varied across calendar periods and were imprecise for most cause-specific outcomes. Sensitivity analyses mostly showed that the main curve shapes were robust. Interpretation Short-term exposure to hot temperatures, both low and high intraday temperature variability, and higher levels of precipitation were associated with an increased risk of all-cause hospitalisation among children in Sweden, with clearer variation by age group and region than by sex or socioeconomic position. These findings support targeting paediatric climate-health preparedness and early-warning systems toward younger children and higher-risk regions such as eastern Sweden and extending such systems beyond mean temperature to include intraday temperature variability, a distinct, currently overlooked driver of risk that heat-focused systems are not designed to capture. Fundings This research was funded by Formas the Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (grant no. 2023-01774 and 2022-01845) and the Swedish Research Council (2025-02804 and 2022-06599).

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Inferential instability of national sugar and sweetener availability as an indicator of adult obesity trajectories: A global within-between panel audit

Nkulikwa, Z. A.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.25.26360957 medRxiv
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The analysis uses a global 2010-2023 panel comprising 3,038 economy-years across 217 economies. It explicitly separates between-economy and within-economy estimands and tests the longitudinal interpretation using an identical-sample temporal analysis with cluster-aware coefficient contrasts, a formal isometric log-ratio sensitivity analysis, independent fixed-effects replication, and wild-cluster-bootstrap inference. The central finding is deliberately calibrated: cross-economy agreement cannot validate national sugar availability for longitudinal obesity surveillance. The study identifies temporal and construct instability without claiming that sugar is protective or that the mechanisms producing the instability have been identified. The manuscript aligns well with PLOS ONEs emphasis on technically sound, transparent and reproducible research of broad relevance. All data required to reproduce the findings, complete metadata, executable code, full-precision results, diagnostic outputs and a completed STROBE checklist are provided as S1-S5. Figures are provided separately as compliant 350-dpi TIFF files. The study used only publicly available, aggregated economy-year statistics and involved no individual participants, identifiable information or biological specimens; institutional ethics review and consent were therefore not required. This is original work; it is not under consideration elsewhere, and the sole author has approved the submission and accepts responsibility for its content. Funding and competing-interest declarations will be entered accurately in the submission portal. An Academic Editor with expertise in nutritional epidemiology, global health metrics, longitudinal panel methods, or food-system surveillance would be well placed to assess the work.

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Mapping the retail food environment at high resolution across Europe

J S, M. R.; Bernsdorf, K. A.; Wagtendonk, A.; Patel, N.; Diez, J.; van de Geest, J. D. S.; Valiente, R.; Bartoskova, A.; Burgoine, T.; Lakerveld, J.

2026-07-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.07.29.26359016 medRxiv
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Aim: Neighbourhood food outlet availability influences dietary behaviours and nutrition related health outcomes. However, food environment research across Europe remains limited by inconsistent spatial data, heterogenous food outlet classifications, and the lack of publicly available high-resolution retail food data. We developed and evaluated a scalable framework to acquire, classify, validate, and analyse food-related points of interest (POIs) from Google Maps across 39 countries in Europe and Turkey. We also developed a method for characterizing the joint co-occurrence of multiple outlet types as neighbourhood-level food environment exposures. Methods: We harmonized ~3.26 million food-related POIs. Outlets were classified into five main categories (cafes and bakeries, restaurants, fast-food and snack outlets, groceries and food retail, and bars and pubs) and 25 subcategories. We assessed data quality against official registers in five regions (the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Denmark, Madrid (Spain), and Brno (Czech Republic)), testing agreement in positional accuracy, completeness, spatial clustering (Nearest Neighbour Index), and spatial density (kernel density estimation (KDE)). To enable cross-country comparisons, POIs were aggregated to national and city scales, with food outlet density calculated as outlets per 1,000 residents and standardised using z-scores. To characterize neighbourhood-level co-exposures, we applied Principal Component Analysis (PCA) followed by Latent Class Analysis (LCA) to z-standardized outlet densities across 500 m hexagonal grid cells in eight major European cities. Results: Google Maps data showed high positional accuracy, with 91% of outlets located within 30m of registry records. Completeness varied by region, while KDE comparisons showed moderate-to-strong spatial agreement with city-specific variation. PCA identified two components explaining 68.4% of the variance (PC1: 51.3%, PC2: 17.1%), with PC2 differing between cafe/bar and fast-food/supermarket densities. LCA identified four neighbourhood classes: low-access, moderate-mixed, dining-out, and high-density-mixed. Conclusion: Our harmonized high-resolution framework supports cross-national monitoring of retail food environments and spatial epidemiological research across European settings.

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Calibrating self-reported BMI in national surveillance: impact on obesity misclassification and socioeconomic inequalities in Portugal

Valente, B.; Silva, C. C.; Severo, M.; Oliveira, A.; Gerdtham, U.-G.; Araujo, J.

2026-08-26 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.24.26357362 medRxiv
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Background: Self reported height and weight are prone to misreporting, which can bias BMI estimates. This study identifies misreporting determinants, develops calibration equations and examines how measured, self-reported, and calibrated BMI affect estimates of obesity prevalence and socioeconomic inequalities. Methods: We analysed survey-weighted, sex stratified data from 3,404 adults (18-64 years) in the Portuguese National Food, Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey (IAN-AF 2015-2016), including self reported and measured anthropometry. Misreporting determinants were assessed using multinomial logistic regression. Calibration equations for height and weight were estimated using measured values, self-reports, age, region of residence and education level. Calibrated BMI was derived from predicted values. Obesity prevalence was estimated for each BMI assessment method (30 kg/m^2). Education, income and employment inequalities in obesity were compared across BMI methods using prevalence difference and ratio, slope index and relative indexes of inequality. Results: Height is systematically overreported and weight underreported, with misreporting increasing with age and BMI. Calibration eliminates underestimation of obesity prevalence from self-reported BMI, bringing calibrated estimates close to measured values. Regarding education-related inequalities in obesity, calibration widen disparities among women, whereas among men corrects the overestimation observed from self-reported BMI. Income and employment-inequality patterns are similar across BMI methods. Conclusions: Among Portuguese adults, the systematic and socially patterned misreport of self-reported anthropometry affects obesity prevalence and inequality estimates. Calibration based on simple sociodemographic models improves validity and equity of obesity surveillance and could be routinely integrated into national surveys to strengthen monitoring of obesity and its socioeconomic distribution.

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Exposure to unhealthy commodity brands in YouTube highlights of English Premier League and FIFA World Cup football matches

Davies, N. P.; Busby, S.; Morling, J.

2026-08-19 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.17.26360621 medRxiv
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Background YouTube highlights packages are a major and growing route to football consumption, particularly among children and young people, but brand exposure within them has not been quantified. We measured unhealthy commodity brand exposure in English Premier League (EPL) and FIFA World Cup (WC) highlights. Methods We coded brand appearances lasting two or more seconds in 10 Sky Sports EPL highlights (final 10 games of the 2025/26 season) and 19 official FIFA 2026 WC highlights, recording commodity category, placement, and match moment, alongside pre-roll YouTube adverts. Data were collected between 4 June and 27 July 2026. Five highlights were double-coded (Cohen's kappa 0.85). Results Overall brand density was similar across competitions (13.1 vs 13.9 references per minute), but composition differed markedly. Unhealthy commodity branding occupied 38.0% of EPL screen time versus 18.7% at the WC, a difference driven almost entirely by gambling (32.6% vs 1.5%). Gambling appeared in every EPL package, mainly on pitchside boards and LED screens (50.4%), with front-of-shirt accounting for 27.1%. WC exposure was more evenly spread across HFSS food (13%), alcohol (4%) and trading/crypto/prediction markets (3.7%), and appeared almost exclusively pitchside. Gambling brands accounted for ten of twelve pre-roll EPL adverts (123 of 153 seconds); no gambling adverts preceded WC highlights. Conclusions Gambling dominates unhealthy commodity exposure in EPL highlights, both in-video and in pre-roll advertising. Because most appearances occur away from the front of shirt, the voluntary front-of-shirt sponsorship withdrawal will leave the majority of this exposure intact. The WC comparison shows that tighter central control of the advertising environment produces lower and more diffuse exposure, and that governments and governing bodies with such control could restrict unhealthy categories altogether.

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Uncovering Social Media Influencers' Health Posts: A Youth-Driven Mixed Method Study

Gell, S.; Engel, E.; Karsay, K.; Heiss, R.

2026-10-14 public and global health 10.64898/2026.10.13.26365375 medRxiv
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Social media influencers serve as a key source of health information for adolescents but often lack expertise, have commercial motives, and may spread misleading or harmful content. This study examines the health-related content shared by influencers, the prevalence of advertising, and how adolescents evaluate potential benefits and risks. Using a mixed-methods approach, we employed a quantitative descriptive method involving citizen science (Study 1) and a qualitative content analysis (Study 2). In Study 1, 336 adolescents from 16 Austrian schools documented and categorized 2,147 posts from 255 influencers. The most common topics included sports and fitness (50.5%), beauty ideals (29.6%), food and nutrition (27.6%), and cooking (19.1%). Although advertisements appeared in 41.5% of posts, adolescents rated 60.4% of them as beneficial and only 4.5% as harmful. The qualitative analysis of a subsample of the 90 most prominent posts showed that adolescents appreciated motivational aspects (e.g., healthy eating) but often overlooked problematic elements such as misleading claims, sexualized body ideals, and the linking of health messages to commercial products. Enhancing persuasion knowledge and critical thinking through education, along with stricter regulation of harmful products, is crucial to safeguarding youth online.

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Long-term mortality rate changes and inverse patterns for pandemic and post-pandemic excess mortality

Ioannidis, J.; Levitt, M.

2026-08-17 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.14.26360482 medRxiv
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The COVID-19 pandemic and pandemic response may have long-term consequences. The cumulative impact may be better appraised when post-pandemic years are also considered. For 38 populations with reliable death registration data, we estimated excess deaths for 2020-2025 with 4 models and granular age stratification. The Fa model compared deaths against the mean of 2017-2019. Three other trend models considered changes in mortality rates after 2003 (or after a country reached $20,000 per capita income) factoring trend-of-trends (TTa), including shrinkage (STTa), and factoring also the 2024-2025 data for trend-of-trends calculation (STTa). Slopes (weighted mean -0.58%/year in 2019) and slopes-of-slopes (weighted mean +0.106%/year-squared) for age-stratified mortality rates were highly heterogeneous across populations. On model average, 6 populations (Luxembourg, Ireland, Sweden, New Zealand, Denmark, Korea) had cumulative death deficits during 2020-2025, while another 6 (Chile, Bulgaria, Japan, Greece, USA, Italy) had >4% excess deaths. Differences across populations were more prominent during 2020-2023, while 33/38 countries had estimated death deficits in 2024-2025. Total 2020-2025 excess deaths were 1.16-2.63 million (2020-2023: 2.19-3.03 million; 2024-2025: -1.03 to -0.40 million deficit). Lack of age stratification and use of unchanged linear trends for the baseline grossly biased excess death estimates upwards. Socioeconomically more vulnerable populations had higher pandemic deaths, but a more pronounced post-pandemic death deficit. Excess death estimates require careful consideration of changing population age structure and long-term mortality trajectories. Post-pandemic death deficits, especially in more vulnerable populations, may reflect deaths of people with modest life expectancy during the pandemic with respective pay off in 2024-2025

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Comparing physical activity policy evaluations across 27 EU member states: Diverse indicators, inconsistent findings

Messing, S.; Tcymbal, A.; Birkholz, L.; Bauman, A.; Whiting, S.; O'Hehir, C.; Woods, C.

2026-09-10 health policy 10.64898/2026.09.04.26361720 medRxiv
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Background: Physical inactivity remains a major public health challenge, and policy action across sectors is needed to create environments that enable active lifestyles. Several tools have been developed to evaluate national physical activity policies, but it remains unclear whether they assess similar policy aspects or produce comparable results. This study compared evaluation results across the 27 EU member states and examined the indicators used by these tools. Methods: Eight physical activity policy evaluation tools were included that (a) assess national physical activity policies and (b) had been applied in multiple countries. For five tools covering at least half of the EU member states, aggregate scores were extracted or calculated and converted into country rankings. A total of 202 indicators were coded and mapped by category (policy content, process, structure), and data type (audit, content, implementation, impact assessment). Results: Country rankings varied considerably, with a mean difference of 13.0 positions between highest and lowest ranks. Some countries displayed consistent results (e.g., Austria, France, Germany), while others showed large discrepancies (e.g., Hungary, Spain). Indicator mapping revealed a focus on policy content (47.6%), followed by structure (21.6%) and process (13.7%) (6.2% other). Across tools, 20.3% of indicators audited policies, 26.0% assessed policy content, and 26.4% assessed policy implementation (16.3% other). Conclusion: The systematic comparison of indicators across physical activity policy evaluation tools provided insights into differences in country rankings. Future evaluations should clearly communicate their purpose, identify synergies between tools, address gaps in policy evaluation, and strengthen the reproducibility of evaluation processes.

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Municipality-level ecological analysis of COVID-19 mortality and infections in Austria, 2020 to 2023

Riedmann, U.; Stevenson, A. C.; Dibben, C.; Grant, W. B.; Sprenger, M.; Zgaga, L.; Woltsche, J.; Wolf, P.; Maerz, W.; Ioannidis, J.; Pilz, S.

2026-10-16 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365614 medRxiv
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Background: Previous studies indicated that regional fluctuations in COVID-19 impact were associated with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental factors early in the pandemic. It is unclear whether factors associated with regional COVID-19 mortality and SARS-CoV-2 infections changed over the course of the pandemic. Methods: We evaluated the association of ecological factors with municipality-specific COVID-19 mortality in the national population of Austria between January 2020 and June 2023. Analyses were conducted separately per calendar year and pooled across years via random-effects meta-analysis. Outcomes were analysed using univariable and multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression, including annually averaged environmental exposome exposure (including air pollution and UV radiation), socioeconomic, demographic and infection dissemination predictors with significance threshold set to p<0.005. Secondary analysis modelled SARS-CoV-2 infections using of negative-binomial model (NB). Two additional approaches for smaller predictor set selection were applied as sensitivity analyses. Results: Within the entire observation period 18,430 COVID-19 deaths were reported. In univariable analyses (pooled RR (99.5% CI)), COVID-19 mortality was significantly associated with the proportion of commuters (0.79 (0.73-0.86)), residents aged 75-84 (1.18 (1.01-1.37)) and [&ge;]85 years (1.29 (1.04-1.60)), residents with at most compulsory education (1.15 (1.02-1.29)), employed residents aged 15-64 (0.89 (0.85-0.93)), and homeowners (0.91 (0.83-0.99)), as well as with precipitation (0.94 (0.89-0.99)) and the average time with a mean temperature of 5-15 C (0.95 (0.90-0.99)). In multivariable analyses the share of population aged 85 or older (1.30 (1.09-1.54)) and home ownership (0.92 (0.87-0.98)) were independently significant. Mortality predictor estimates were relatively stable across pandemic years. Across 5,963,882 documented SARS-CoV-2 infections share of employed in 15- to 64-year-olds (1.01 (1.01-1.02)), part-time employment rate (1.01 (1.00-1.02)) and district level nursing care allowance recipiency (0.97 (0.95-0.98)) were associated with detected infections. Overnight stays, population 85 or older, income, compulsory education or less and air pollution all had multiple significant estimates with opposite directionality, leading to non-significant overall associations. Sensitivity analyses outcomes mirrored main analyses outcomes. Conclusions: Throughout the pandemic in Austria, demographic and socioeconomic factors were associated with COVID-19 mortality and infections, but many associations, especially for infections, were unstable over time. These findings underscore the importance of structural vulnerabilities in epidemic impact.

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Clinical, environmental, and sociodemographic factors in ethnic differences in incidence of type 2 diabetes complications and mortality in a Dutch dynamic prospective primary care cohort: a DIAMANT study

Muilwijk, M.; Strooij, B.; Elders, P.; Rutters, F.; Nijpels, G.; Vaartjes, I.; Overbeek, J.; Herings, R.; Lakerveld, J.; Blom, M.; Beulens, J.

2026-08-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.12.26360278 medRxiv
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Introduction: Ethnic minority populations are disproportionately affected by type 2 diabetes (T2D). We investigated ethnic differences in the risks of diabetes-related complications and mortality in the Netherlands, and identified clinical, sociodemographic and environmental determinants associated with these differences. Methods: We included 175,112 adults with T2D from the dynamic prospective primary care cohort DIAMANT. DIAMANT data were linked to national registries from Statistics Netherlands and GECCO, a database integrating geographic, environmental and contextual exposures. Ethnic differences in complications risks were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Potential mediating factors were explored using machine-learning-based variable selection and association decomposition approaches. Results: At baseline, mean age was 65.4 (SD 12.3) years, 46.6% were women and median T2D duration was 11.3 [IQR 7.2; 15.8] years. Substantial heterogeneity in complication risk was observed across ethnic groups compared with Dutch-origin individuals. Retinopathy risk was consistently higher across nearly all non-Dutch groups (HRs 1.37-2.37). For macrovascular complications, elevated risks were mainly observed among Surinamese and Turkish individuals, including heart failure (HR 1.30 and 1.46, respectively). In contrast, individuals of Indonesian and Moroccan origin showed similar or lower risk for most complications. Environmental exposures (e.g. air pollution, temperature) and sociodemographic factors (e.g. main benefit, household composition) accounted for a substantial attenuation of several observed associations. Discussion: Substantial ethnic differences exist in risks of T2D complications and mortality, which showed to be heterogeneous across outcomes and populations. Our findings suggest that a considerable proportion of these disparities is attributable to differences in environmental and sociodemographic context, highlighting the importance of interventions that take into account differences in environmental and socio-demographic context.

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Prevalence, determinants, and cardiometabolic consequences of overweight and obesity among people with Down syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Nambooze, R.; Pitua, I.; Bongomin, F.; Walakira, E. J.; Hove, G. V.; Schauwer, E. D.

2026-07-28 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.07.25.26358905 medRxiv
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Objective. This systematic review and meta-analysis synthesised the global prevalence of overweight and obesity in people with Down syndrome (DS) across the lifespan, characterised determinants of excess adiposity, and examined associations with adverse cardiometabolic outcomes. Methods. Six databases were searched without date or language restriction. Two independent reviewers screened studies, extracted data, and assessed quality using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist for Prevalence Studies. Prevalence was pooled using a random-effects logit model. A pre-specified subgroup analysis by age band was conducted. Publication bias was assessed with Egger's test and certainty of evidence with Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE). Results. Twenty-six studies (7,840 individuals; 14 countries) were included. The pooled prevalence was 18% (95% CI 15-22%) in children and adolescents, 36% (95% CI 26-47%) in adults, and 30% (95% CI 20-43%) in mixed-age cohorts; the test for subgroup differences was significant. The overall pooled prevalence was 22% (95% CI 18-26%; prediction interval 7-53%; I^2 = 95.3%). No publication bias was detected (Egger's t = 0.39, p = 0.6964). DS-specific growth charts yielded estimates 14-37 percentage points lower than general-population references applied to the same cohorts. Obesity more than doubled obstructive sleep apnea risk (RR 2.4; 95% CI 1.34-4.34) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease was present in 82% of obese versus 45% of non-obese children with DS. GRADE certainty was Moderate for prevalence estimates. Conclusions. Overweight and obesity in DS are highly prevalent, age-progressive, and substantially exceed general-population rates at every life stage. Roughly one in five people with DS is affected overall, rising to more than one in three adults. The reference chart applied is the single largest source of heterogeneity in reported estimates. Cardiometabolic surveillance, adapted lifestyle interventions, and primary prevalence research from low- and middle-income countries are the highest-priority gaps.

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Compounding Associations Of Education And Social Care Support On Hospital Costs Throughout Childhood

Lau, Y.-S.; Gilbert, R. E.; Parra, G. P.; Sutton, M.

2026-08-12 health economics 10.64898/2026.08.11.26360173 medRxiv
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Abstract Objective To describe variation in hospital costs among children with different combinations of health conditions, special educational needs or disability (SEND) and children social care (CSC) indicators. Study Setting and Design This cross-sectional study used regression analysis to test whether two-way and three-way interactions of cross-public sector service use (health, education and social care) are associated with higher hospital costs in England. Data Sources and Analytic Sample Hospital care costs between April 2022 and March 2023 for the 8.9 million children aged 5-18 years were obtained from linked administrative hospital, education or social care data in the ECHILD database. Children were classified into eight categories based on combinations of indicators of chronic health conditions, SEND or CSC. Principal Findings Over one-third (35.4%) of children had some hospital costs during the year. Average costs were 317GBP for all children and 895GBP for children with non-zero hospital costs. By age 18, few children had no indicator in any sector (35.1% of boys, 43.7% of girls) and indicators in all three sectors were not rare (7.1% of boys, 6.2% of girls). At age 5, children with indicators recorded in all three sectors had the highest hospital costs (2,952GBP for boys and 3,674GBP for girls). At age 18, males and females with indicators in all three sectors accounted for 21% and 23% of hospital costs, respectively. SEND and social care indicators without chronic health conditions were associated with only slightly higher hospital costs. Hospital costs were much higher for children with SEND if they also had a chronic health condition. Hospital costs were only higher for children with social care if they also had both a chronic health condition and SEND. Conclusions. Taking account of additional support from non-health sectors is important for understanding health sector costs. The compounding associations between use of other public sectors on health sector costs indicates scope for targeting of integrated care.

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Trends in Why Americans Delayed Dental Care From Pre-COVID-19 to the COVID-19 Era: Implications for Oral Public Health

Zanwar, P. P. P.; Patel, J. S.; Shen, C.

2026-08-23 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.22.26361060 medRxiv
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Objectives: To describe age-group differences in inability to afford dental treatment and cost related dental delay, among the US community-dwelling population. Study design: Descriptive analysis of nationally representative survey data. Methods: Using nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data (2018-2021), we examined trends in inability to afford dental treatment and cost-related dental treatment delays across four age groups (2-17, 18-39, 40-64, [&ge;]65 years). Weighted analyses accounted for the complex survey design; statistical significance was set at p<0.001. Results: Cost-related delays declined modestly from 2018 to 2021 but remained most prevalent among adults aged 40-64 (4.8% for ages 40-64, 3.4% for ages 18- 64, 2.2% for ages>65 in 2021; p<0.001). Conclusion: Middle-aged adults seem to experience delays due to cost, underscoring the need for dental coverage to expand dental coverage for this group and to reduce their out-of-pocket costs.

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Rising rates of young people Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET) explained by higher prevalence of physical and psychological ill health: a 15-year UK study

Wels, J.; Kelly, D.; Smeeth, D.; Bridger Staatz, C.; Li, Z.; Ploubidis, G.; Chaturvedi, N.; Patalay, P.

2026-08-12 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.11.26360217 medRxiv
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Background: Rising rates of young people Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET) in the UK have recently coincided with declining youth physical and mental health but no study has asked whether this reflects a growing proportion of young people with health problems (prevalence) or those with health problems becoming more likely to be NEET (penalty). Methods: Using 15 years of Understanding Society data (2009-23), we analysed 15,242 respondents aged 16-24 (66,160 observations). We employed three complementary approaches: descriptive trends, Blinder-Oaxaca-Kitagawa (BO) probit decomposition comparing 2009-2013 and 2019-2023 against a 2014-2018 reference period, and fixed-effects (FE) Poisson models with lagged health status. Exposures included self-reported health conditions or disability (SRHD), psychological distress , diagnosed conditions and socio-demographic factors. Findings: NEET rates were lowest in 2014-18 (10.5-11.5%) and higher in 2009-13 (12-15%) and 2019-23 (15-16%). Higher prevalence of SRHD, psychological distress, diagnosed depression and multimorbidity explained changes in NEET prevalence across both the 2009-13 to 2014-2018 and 2014-18 to 2019-23 periods. No change in penalty was observed for any health variable across periods, except for an increase in the penalty for SRHD between the 2009-13 to 2014-18 periods. Interpretation: Rising NEET rates among UK youth are driven largely by more young people having physical and psychological ill health. Whilst labour market and education accommodations remain important, reducing NEET rates will require reversing the decline in youth health, not just accommodating it.

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Timing matters: when do primiparous and multiparous pregnant women initiate folic acid supplementation, and who initiates it too late?

Ebong, U.; Given, J.; Casey, F.; Loane, M.; Dolk, H.

2026-09-27 public and global health 10.64898/2026.09.25.26363991 medRxiv
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Background: Women are recommended to take folic acid supplements (FAS) periconceptionally to prevent neural tube defects, but the low levels of FAS uptake are poorly understood. This study aimed to determine how parity, pregnancy planning and other maternal factors affect the timing of FAS initiation. Method: We used data from a representative sample of 966 pregnant women from the Northern Ireland Baby Hearts study. Questionnaire responses on health behaviours, including FAS, were linked to maternity and area-based deprivation data. Logistic regression assessed determinants of FAS initiation preconception. Time-varying Cox regression assessed associations between initiation postconception and pregnancy-related milestones. Results: Forty-one per cent of women initiated FAS preconception. Lower odds of preconception initiation were associated with multiparity (adjusted OR 0.47 (0.32 to 0.68)), unplanned pregnancy (adjusted OR 0.08 (0.05 to 0.13)), deprivation and consuming a low folate diet. Higher odds were associated with fertility treatment and previous pregnancy loss. Forty-seven per cent of women initiated FAS postconception, mainly after pregnancy recognition (median 5 weeks), including 34.1% of those who planned their pregnancy. For primiparous women with unplanned pregnancies, the first health service contact (median 7 weeks) further increased FAS initiation. Conclusion: Many women, even multiparous women with previous pregnancy experience and women who planned their pregnancies, are initiating FAS after pregnancy recognition. This shows awareness of FAS benefits, but is too late to prevent neural tube defects. Public health interventions need to go beyond awareness to address motivation and opportunity for FAS, and pay more attention to multiparous women.

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The Relationship Between Household Cash Transfer Access and Cumulative Incidence of Diabetes and Prediabetes in Rural South Africa

Klein, M.; Roy, I.; Gaziano, T.; Ohene-Kwofie, D.; Jordan, E.; Kalbaugh, C. A.; Tollman, S.; Rosenberg, M.

2026-08-25 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.21.26361078 medRxiv
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Introduction: Cash transfer programs could reduce diabetes risk by decreasing chronic stress and increasing food security, physical activity, and preventive care, but there is an evidence gap on the relationship between cash transfer access and diabetes and prediabetes incidence. Methods: We used data from the Health and Ageing in Africa: Longitudinal Studies in South Africa (HAALSA) Indepth cohort of Black South Africans ages 40+ (N=5059). We fit log binomial models to estimate the relationship between household cash transfer eligibility (HCT) and cumulative incidence of diabetes and prediabetes between 2014/15 and 2021/22. We performed quantile regression to estimate change in continuous glucose values across the glucose distribution with additional HCT. Results: No association was observed between HCT and diabetes risk. Each additional unit of HCT was associated with reduced prediabetes risk [aCIR (95% CI): 0.94 (0.90, 0.98); p=0.007]. The largest reduction in glucose values associated with additional HCT was at the highest end of the glucose distribution. Discussion: Our observations suggest household cash transfer access reduces risk of prediabetes but not diabetes. However, household cash transfer access was associated with the largest decrease in glucose for the most severely glucose-impaired, implying the potential for HCT to reduce risk of hyperglycemic complications.

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Adolescent health and Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) in young adulthood: Evidence from a UK prospective longitudinal study

Kelly, D. P.; Wels, J.; Patalay, P.

2026-08-17 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.13.26360381 medRxiv
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Background: High rates of young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) are a major societal concern in the UK. Whilst other studies have highlighted that adolescent health can predict NEET status in young adulthood, robust and recent longitudinal evidence remains limited. Methods: This study used data from the Millennium Cohort Study, a longitudinal study of people born in the UK in the early 2000s, to estimate the extent to which mental health conditions, physical health conditions and health behaviours during adolescence predict NEET status in early adulthood (median age: 23). Co-occurrence of exposures was also considered and population attributable fractions were calculated to account for differences in exposure prevalence. Results: Among 8,374 young people, 12.5% were NEET at age 23; approximately two thirds were seeking work and one third were economically inactive. Estimates adjusted for demographic factors indicated that multiple health exposures increased risk of being NEET at age 23, with mental health conditions predicting greater risk than physical health conditions and health behaviours. For instance, a longstanding mental health condition more than doubled the risk of being NEET (adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 2.39, 95% CIs = 1.85, 3.09), while autism (aRR = 3.60, 95% CIs = 2.69, 4.83) and ADHD (aRR = 3.25, 95% CIs = 2.38, 4.44) more than tripled the risk. A greater number of reported adolescent mental health conditions was associated with greater risk of being NEET in young adulthood. Obesity predicted being NEET at age 23 (aRR = 1.54, 95% CIs = 1.18, 2.01) and obesity accompanied by a mental health condition further increased risk (aRR = 2.01, 95% CIs = 1.38, 2.93). Follow-up analyses indicated that associations between adolescent mental health and young adult NEET status were more pronounced for females than males and for the economically inactive than those seeking work. Conclusions: Findings indicate that adolescent health, especially mental health, strongly predicts being NEET in early adulthood. Early, integrated health and education interventions may help reduce later educational and labour market disengagement.

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Revealing the Unseen Burden: A Comprehensive Analysis of Social and Economic Impact of Atopic Dermatitis in Argentina

Espinola, N.; Casarini, A.; Ini, N.; Asociacion ADAR, ; Luna, P.; Silvestrini Viola, C.; Augustovski, F.

2026-07-27 health economics 10.64898/2026.07.23.26358757 medRxiv
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Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic inflammatory skin condition with a multidimensional burden. This study aimed to estimate the socioeconomic burden of the pediatric and adult population with AD in Argentina and explore the health system's response to their needs. We employed a mixed-methods approach, combining a cross-sectional cost-of-illness analysis with a qualitative component to comprehensively assess the social and economic impact of atopic dermatitis in Argentina. We collected data from a survey, focus group and in-depth interviews conducted in Argentina between May 2023 and September 2023. We recruited adult patients and caregivers of children with AD below 18 years of age. We used multivariable ordinal regression to assess associations between sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and burden associated with AD. 1471 subjects participated in the pediatric analysis, and 1412 in the adult analysis. The average annual per capita cost was USD 2639 for adults with AD and USD 8682 for children with AD. Costs increased significantly with disease severity in both groups and were strongly associated with patients' quality of life. Patients and caregivers highlighted the poor response of the health system in terms of adequate and timely access, as well as comprehensive care of the disease. Patients and caregivers suffer from a significant economic burden and quality of life impact associated with AD, which requires urgent attention and comprehensive support from the healthcare system to improve their lives.